In a rare moment of
candor last week, the third-ranking Republican in the House
admitted the failure of the
Bush tax cuts.
"You know, I think it's fair to say, if the current tax rates
were enough to create jobs and generate economic growth we'd
have a growing economy,"
Mike Pence acknowledged,
adding, "It's not working now." Given that the Bush years
produced the
worst economic growth in the past 50 years,
Pence is sadly correct. But sadder still is the dismal
performance of the Bush economy across almost every indicator
that counts. From moribund job creation and sinking household
incomes to skyrocketing deficits and record income inequality,
Republican economic stewardship over
the past decade has been a disaster.
Here, then, are the 10 Epic Failures of the Bush Tax Cuts:
- Dismal Economic Growth
- A Decade of Budget Deficits
- Red Ink as Far as the Eye Can See
- Disastrous Job Creation
- Declining Incomes
- Increasing Poverty
- A Massive Windfall for the Wealthy
- Record Income Inequality
- A Sagging Stock Market
- Jeopardizing Future Economic Growth
(Details and charts for each
follow.)
1. Dismal Economic Growth
While
Democrats in Congress
are getting weak n the knees, the
American people consistently voice
their support for ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 2%.
And with good reason. As
David Leonhardt
documented in the New York Times last week:
Those tax cuts passed in 2001 amid big promises
about what they would do for the economy. What followed? The
decade with the slowest average annual growth since World
War II. Amazingly, that statement is true even if you forget
about the Great Recession and simply look at 2001-7.
Surveying his chart of two generations of GDP growth
(above), Leonhardt was surely right to ask, "Why should we
believe that extending the Bush tax cuts will provide a big lift
to growth?"
To be sure, George W. Bush
provided the perfect bookend to era of modern Republican
economic management ushered by Herbert Hoover. The verdict on
President Bush's
reign of ruin was pronounced even
before Barack Obama took the oath of office. Just days after the
Washington Post documented that George W. Bush presided over the
worst eight-year economic performance
in the modern American presidency, the
New York Times on January 24 featured
an analysis ("Economic Setbacks That Define the Bush Years")
comparing presidential performance going back to Eisenhower. As
the Times showed, George W. Bush, the
first MBA president,
was a historic failure when it came to expanding GDP and, as
we'll see below, producing jobs and fueling stock market growth.

2. A Decade of Budget Deficits
One thing the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and
2003 did succeed in producing is
red ink.
In his version of the
Republican myth that "tax
cuts pay for themselves," President
Bush confidently proclaimed, "You cut taxes and the tax revenues
increase." As it turned out, not so much. After
Ronald Reagan tripled the national debt
with his supply-side tax cuts, George W. Bush doubled it again
with his own.
The Center on Budget and
Policy Priorities (CBPP) found that the
Bush tax cuts accounted for almost half
of the mushrooming deficits during
his tenure.

3. Red
Ink as Far as the Eye Can See
As
another CBPP analysis
forecast, over the next 10 years, the Bush tax cuts if made
permanent will contribute more to the U.S. budget deficit than
the Obama stimulus, the TARP program, the wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq, and revenue lost to the recession
put together.

Predictably, the Bush tax cuts
didn't come anywhere close to paying for themselves. And as
Congressional Budget Office projections
revealed in June, making them permanent is the very worst
thing the so-called deficit hawks could do to reduce the
U.S. debt.

4. Disastrous Job Creation
Conservatives used to boast that under
George W. Bush the United States enjoyed 52 consecutive months
of job growth. Not, with the exception of
Ed Gillespie, anymore.
On January 9, 2009, the
Republican-friendly
Wall Street Journal summed it up with
an article titled simply, "Bush
on Jobs: the Worst Track Record on Record."
(The Journal's interactive table quantifies his staggering
failure relative to every post-World War II president.) The
dismal 3 million jobs created under President Bush didn't merely
pale in comparison to the 23 million produced during Bill
Clinton's tenure. In September 2009, the Congressional
Joint Economic Committee charted
Bush's job creation disaster, the worst since Hoover:

5.
Declining Incomes
George W. Bush didn't just preside over an
employment calamity. This fall, we learned that on his watch
Americans' incomes dropped
as well.
After the passage of his tax
cut bonanza for the rich,
Bush bragged that his policies "meant
people had more money in their pocket." He just didn't say which
people.
That indictment of the
reckless Bush gilded class tax giveaway came from tax expert
David Cay Johnston
in September. Just days after the Census
Bureau reported a jump in poverty during even before the start
of the December 2007 Bush recession, Johnston reported, "Total
income was $2.74 trillion less during the eight Bush years than
if incomes had stayed at 2000 levels."

After asking, "So how did the tax
cuts work out?" Johnston paints a grim picture of economic
failure:
Even if we limit the analysis by starting in 2003,
when the dividend and capital gains tax cuts began, through
the peak year of 2007, the result is still less income than
at the 2000 level. Total income was down $951 billion during
those four years.
Average incomes fell. Average taxpayer income was
down $3,512, or 5.7 percent, in 2008 compared with 2000,
President Bush's own benchmark year for his promises of
prosperity through tax cuts.
Had incomes stayed at 2000 levels, the average
taxpayer would have earned almost $21,000 more over those
eight years. That's almost $50 per week.
6. Increasing Poverty
Given the depth of the Bush Recession, it
should comes as no surprise that
the U.S. poverty level jumped
precipitously. What is even more alarming is that the upward
climb began before Bush drove the economy into the ditch in
2007.
To be sure, the
new
Census data
on
poverty and
health care in America are grim. At
14.3%, the poverty rate in 2008 jumped to its highest level
since 1994. Meanwhile, the number of uninsured catapulted to
50.7 million, as employers shed jobs and insurance benefits
during the deep Bush recession. Ominously, median household
income dropped to $49,777, a 4.8% decline between 2000 and 2009.
But writing in the Washington
Post earlier this fall,
Ezra Klein wanted to "draw your
attention to the scariest numbers in the release, even though
they're not from this year." Pointing to deeper, structural
problems for the U.S. economy even in comparably good times,
Klein warned:
We've seen a big jump in the poverty rate in the
past two years, of course, but we also saw a mild increase
in the years before that. Between 2001 and 2007, the poverty
rate increased from 11.7 percent to 12.5 percent. But the
economy grew in every one of those years. This was the first
period since we began keeping records in which the economy
expanded but poverty went up -- usually, economic expansions
bring the poverty rate down. It's more evidence that the
pre-crisis "normal" was an economy that wasn't working very
well for a lot of people, even when it was growing.

It's no wonder Klein called it "one of my least
favorite graphs."
(Of course,
it could have been worse. CBPP
estimated that Democratic initiatives including S-CHIP, expanded
unemployment insurance, the Recovery Act's bolstered federal
Medicaid and COBRA subsidies and other programs kept 3.3 million
more Americans from joining the 43.6 million already living in
poverty.)
7. A Massive
Windfall for the Wealthy
In February 2004,
President Bush proclaimed, "we cut
taxes, which basically meant people had more money in their
pocket." Of course, some people are more equal than others.
Reviewing the Census data,
David Cay Johnston concluded that the Bush tax cuts which have
already drained the Treasury of $2.3 trillion were a major
contributor to the
record U.S. income gap:
In only two of the eight Bush years, 2006 and
2007, were average incomes higher than in 2000, but the
gains were highly concentrated at the top. Of the total
increase in income in 2007 over that in 2005, nearly 30
percent went to taxpayers who made $1 million or more...
One of every eight dollars of the tax cuts went to
the 1 in 1,000 taxpayers in the top tenth of 1 percent, the
annual threshold for which was in the $2 million range
throughout the last administration.
And as Congress - and voters
- ponder the Republican pledge to deliver
another $700 billion, 10-year windfall
for the richest 2% of taxpayers,
Johnston highlighted the free ride President Bush already gave
them:
The number of people reporting incomes of $200,000
or more but legally paying no federal income taxes
skyrocketed in the second Bush term. A decade ago it was
fewer than 1,500 taxpayers; in 2000 it was about 2,300. This
high-income, tax-free group jumped to more than 11,000 in
2007 and then doubled in 2008 to more than 22,000.
In 2008 nearly 1 in every 200 high-income
taxpayers paid no federal income tax, up from about 1 in
1,500 in 1998.
The share of high incomes that were untaxed
increased more than sevenfold to one dollar of every $166.
As the
Center for American Progress noted in
2004, "for the majority of Americans, the tax cuts meant very
little," adding, "By next year, for instance, 88% of all
Americans will receive $100 or less from the Administration's
latest tax cuts."
But that's just the beginning
of the story. As the CAP also reported, the Bush tax cuts
delivered
a third of their total benefits
to the wealthiest 1% of Americans. And to be sure, their payday
was staggering. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
detailed that
by 2007,
millionaires on average pocketed $120,000 from the Bush tax cuts
of 2001 and 2003. Those in the top 1% stashed an extra $45,000 a
year. As a result, millionaires saw their
after-tax incomes
rise by 7.6%, while the gains for the middle quintile and bottom
20% of Americans were a paltry 2.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

And as the New York Times uncovered
in 2006,
the 2003 Bush dividend and capital gains tax cuts
offered almost nothing to taxpayers earning below $100,000 a
year. Instead, those windfalls reduced taxes "on incomes of more
than $10 million by an average of about $500,000." As the Times
explained in a
shocking chart:
"The top 2 percent of taxpayers, those making more than
$200,000, received more than 70% of the increased tax savings
from those cuts in investment income."

It's no wonder that between 2001 and
2007,
the 400 richest taxpayers saw their incomes double
to an average of $345 million even as their effective tax rate
was virtually halved.
8.
Record Income Inequality
If the gap between the rich and everyone
feels larger than ever, that's because it is. As the data show,
income inequality has hit levels not seen
in the United States since 1929.
A report from the Center on
Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP)
found a financial Grand Canyon separating the very rich from
everyone else. Over the three decades ending in 2007, the top 1
percent's share of the nation's total after-tax household income
more than doubled, from 7.5 percent to 17.1 percent. During that
time, the share of the middle 60% of Americans dropped from 51.1
percent to 43.5 percent; the bottom four-fifths declined from 58
percent to 48 percent. As for the poor, they fell further and
further behind, with the lowest quintile's income share sliding
to just 4.9%. Expressed in dollar terms, the income gap is
staggering:
Between 1979 and
2007, average after-tax incomes for the top 1 percent rose
by 281 percent after adjusting for inflation -- an increase
in income of $973,100 per household -- compared to increases
of 25 percent ($11,200 per household) for the middle
fifth of households and 16 percent ($2,400 per household)
for the bottom fifth.

As the
New York Times revealed in August
2009, by 2007 the top 1% - the 1.5 million families earning more
than $400,000 - reaped 24% of the nation's income. The bottom
90% - the 136 million families below $110,000 - accounted for
just 50%.

After briefly getting pummeled as
Wall Street plummeted in 2008, the rich have begun to recoup
their losses. The short period of Gilded Interrupted, the Los
Angeles Times reported in "Millionaires
Making a Comeback,"
is already over:
In 2008, as the financial crisis raged, the stock
market hit bottom and the Great Recession ate into the
economy, the number of millionaires in the United States
plunged.
But last year the number of millionaires bounced
up sharply, new data show.
And after that decline and rebound, the
millionaire class held a larger percentage of the country's
wealth than it did in 2007.
"It's been a recession where everyone took a hit
-- with the bottom taking a bigger hit," said Timothy
Smeeding, a University of Wisconsin professor who studies
economic inequality. But "the wealthy alone have bounced
back."
Bounced back, it turns out, with a vengeance. The Boston
Consulting Group found that "the number of U.S. households with
at least $1 million in "bankable" assets climbed 15% last year
to 4.7 million after tumbling 21% in 2008." Despite there being
10% fewer millionaires than in 2007, the percentage of
Americans' total wealth held by those households was slightly
higher, growing to 55%.
Writing in the Washington
Post,
Ezra Klein
neatly summed up the dynamic which has restored income
inequality to record highs:
The basic story here is that assets have recovered
so much more quickly than the broader economy that in 2009,
"the millionaire class held a larger percentage of the
country's wealth than it did in 2007." In other words,
inequality has actually gotten worse. If you want to see why
that's unexpected, check out the chart I cadged from the
Center for Budget and Policy Priorities: After the Great
Depression, inequality fell and didn't recover until 2007.
That's about 80 years. After the Great Recession, inequality
fell and didn't recover until ... 2009? That's one year.
For his part, Larry Mishel of the Economic Policy
Institute argued, "The recession is going to end up accentuating
the inequalities of income and wealth we've seen for 30 years,"
adding, "This requires attention if we're going to see robust
wealth growth going forward."
From his lips to policymakers' ears.
9. A
Sagging Stock Market
For the investor class so fond of
perpetuating the myth of Republicans' superior economic
stewardship, the collapse of the stock marketing during the Bush
recession must be particularly galling. The Standard & Poor's
500 spiraled down at annual rate of 5.6% during Bush's time in
the Oval Office, a disaster even worse than Richard Nixon's
abysmal 4.0% yearly decline. (Only Herbert Hoover's cataclysmic
31% plunge makes Bush look good in comparison.)
As it turns out, as the New
York Times also
showed in October 2008, the Democratic
Party "has been better for American pocketbooks and capitalism
as a whole." To make its case, the New York Times asked readers
to imagine having put their money where its mouth is. Contrary
to
Republican mythology,
Americans fare better - much, much better - under Democratic
administrations:
As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P.
stock market index would have grown to $11,733 if invested
under Republican presidents only, although that would be
$51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover's presidency during the
Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only,
$10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of
8.9 percent over nearly 40 years.
(For the
eye-popping chart of the S&P's
performance under each of the presidents from Hoover through
Bush 43,
visit here.)

There's
no shortage of studies to show that
stock market returns are higher under Democratic leadership.
"It's not even close," the New York Times noted of a UCLA study
in 2003, adding, "The stock market does far better under
Democrats." And as Timothy Egan explained in "How
Obama Saved Capitalism and Lost the Midterms,"
that dynamic is especially true in the wake of the Bush tax
cuts:
Suppose you had $100,000 to invest on the day
Barack Obama was inaugurated. Why bet on a liberal Democrat?
Here's why: the presidency of George W. Bush produced the
worst stock market decline of any president in history. The
net worth of American households collapsed as Bush slipped
away.
On Dubya's last full day in
office, the Dow closed at 8,281, way off the 10,588 mark when he
took office in 2001. No wonder the Boston Herald called Wall
Street's performance under George W. Bush, "Mission
Unaccomplished."
10. Jeopardizing Future Economic Growth
The Bush tax cuts didn't merely help
produce the lost decade of the 2000s. As it turns out,
the Congressional Budget Office believes
that making them permanent will be a drag on the
economy in the future as well.
In his testimony to the
Senate Budget Committee in September,
CBO director Doug Elmendorf
suggested the sooner we drive a stake through the heart of the
budget-busting Bush giveaway to the rich, the better. In what
Ezra Klein labeled "something of a
bombshell," Elmendorf told the Senators extending the Bush tax
cuts will "probably reduce income relative to what would
otherwise occur in 2020."

As Klein explained, "The reason is
simple: Debt."
Elmendorf doesn't deny that tax cuts stimulate the
economy. But they don't stimulate it that much, he says, and
over the long run, the net economic growth from the tax cuts
will be quite small. The net deficit impact won't be. "Lower
tax revenues increase budget deficits and thereby government
borrowing," Elmendorf said, "which crowds out investment,
while lower tax rates increase people's saving and work
effort; the net effect on economic activity depends on the
balance of those forces."
And in this case, size and
duration matter. While President Obama wants to continue middle
class tax cuts for families earning under $250,000 at a ten year
price tag of $3.2 trillion, he remains opposed to the GOP demand
for
another $700 billion handout to the
gilded class. Meanwhile,
some wavering Democrats
are urging a two-year extension of all of the Bush tax cuts
through 2012.
But as Elmendorf argued using the chart above, all of the
scenarios sacrifice long-term economic growth due to massive
national debt overhang. As Klein summed it up:
As you can see, and as Elmendorf said, "Either a
full or a partial extension of the tax cuts through 2012
would reduce income by much less than would a full or
partial permanent extension." So the bottom line is that
extending the tax cuts indefinitely would hurt the economy.
The less you extend the tax cuts, the less damage you do to
the economy. And this goes for both the Democrats and the
Republicans, whose tax cut plans are much more similar to
each other's than to a plan that doesn't extend the tax
cuts, or extends them only for a couple of years.
To be sure, the damage George W.
Bush and his tax cuts did to the American economy is stunning.
To continue that perpetual payday for the upper class would more
than dangerously irresponsible. As David Cay Johnston summed up
the epic failures of the Bush tax cuts:
"This is economic madness. It is policy divorced
from empirical evidence. It is insanity because the policies
are illusory and delusional. The evidence is in, and it
shows beyond a shadow of a reasonable doubt that the 2001
and 2003 tax cuts failed to achieve the promised goals."
HMMMMM.
Tags: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Bush Tax Cuts, deficit, Economic Growth,
economy, GDP, George W. Bush, Household Income, Income Inequality, national
debt, Poverty, Ronald Reagan, Taxes